Current Steamworks guidance
Valve wishlist guidance
Valve explains that wishlists are useful launch signals, but there is no formula that accurately predicts sales.
Read the sourceFree Steam planning tool
Wishlists to sales.
Sales back to wishlists.
Plan both directions with a transparent benchmark range, then optionally test project break-even or a publisher recoup waterfall. No single-number promise pretending every game launches the same way.
- Launch wishlists
- Your wishlist balance immediately before release.
- Paid units
- Total modeled purchases, including buyers who never wishlisted.
- Developer receipts
- Player spend after the selected refunds, tax, and Steam fee.
Selected planning result
1,050
estimated Week-1 paid units
Typical10.5% Week-1 ratio
From 10,000 launch wishlists.
Standard benchmark range 480–2,600 Week-1 paid units.
Benchmark scenarios
Compare the planning range
Select a row to inspect its full projection.
Week-1 ratio means total paid units divided by launch wishlists. It includes organic buyers, so it is not a direct wishlister conversion rate.
Selected projection
Typical over time
Units and revenue use separate long-tail multipliers.
Swipe the table to see Year 1 and Year 2
| Estimate | Week 1 | Month 1 | Year 1 | Year 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paid units | 1,050 | 1,460 | 2,720 | 3,486 |
| Player spend | $18.9K | $26.8K | $46.5K | $56.5K |
| Developer receipts | $11.1K | $15.8K | $27.4K | $33.3K |
Typical estimate: 1,050 estimated Week-1 paid units.
Method, not magic
See exactly what the calculator assumes.
Benchmarks were reviewed on 24 July 2026. They describe observed launch distributions, not a statistical guarantee for any individual game.
Core equations
- Units
wishlists × sales ratio × unit horizon multiplier - Player spend
wishlists × sales ratio × Week-1 price × revenue horizon multiplier - Developer receipts
player spend × (1 − refunds) × (1 − tax) × (1 − Steam fee) - Developer cash under a publisher deal
advance + developer pre-recoup distributions + developer post-recoup distributions - Developer break-even
smallest net receipts where developer cash ≥ entered developer project spend
GameDiscoverCo, 2024 launch cohort
Launch benchmark distribution
The Conservative, Typical, and Strong ratios use the reported 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile of total Week-1 paid units per launch wishlist.
Read the sourceGameDiscoverCo, July 2026
Post-launch multipliers
Unit and revenue horizons use separate Week-1-relative multipliers so later sales are not treated as though they all occur at the launch price.
Read the sourceImportant limitations
- The launch ratios include organic buyers and therefore are not direct wishlist-attributed conversion rates.
- Genre, price, game quality, audience fit, review score, visibility, and launch timing can move outcomes dramatically.
- The long-tail cohort contains games that cleared a minimum Month-1 sales threshold, so weak launches may underperform its later multipliers.
- Currency selection changes formatting only. No exchange-rate conversion or regional price database is used.
- “Developer receipts” is a planning estimate, not accounting, tax, or financial advice.
- Publisher agreements can define revenue, deductions, recoup, reserves, cross-collateralization, and payment timing differently. The optional deal model is a transparent planning case, not a reading of any contract.